Countdown To The Super Bowl

The road to Tampa and Super Bowl XLIII starts this weekend with the Wild Card play-off games. After 17 weeks and 16x games, we are definitely getting down to the business end of the season.

Like last years Patriots going 17-0, another team almost replicated that record only this time Detroit went 0-17. Miami have turned around their fortunes, last year they went 1-15. The appointment of Bill Parcell as GM, a new coach and players. They have surprised everybody with the speed of their turnaround to a 11-5 record to get to the play offs. All the ups and downs in Dallas and Philadelphia meant people took their Eye off the NY Giants, who quietly became division champs and made their way to the play-offs for a chance to repeat. That was until wide receiver Plexico Burres went to a nightclub and got in trouble when he accidentally shot himself in the leg.

The season started badly for The Patriots losing Tom Brady in the 1st week. Matt Cassel understandably looked shaky, however he found his feet and confidence. He started to look like Brady…almost. The irony is that Tom Brady got his break in 2001 when Drew Bledsoe, got injured early in the season and Brady took them to the Super Bowl and lifted the Vince Lombadi trophy.

Matt Cassel put in 2x back-to back games with 400+ yards, which is a new Patriots record, a feat Brady never managed. The Patriots will be feeling very sore missing out on the play-offs with an 11-5 record. That is pretty amazing, especially when you look at the AFC West division champs the San Diego Chargers who with a 3-5 record came good in the final straight to win their division with an 8-8 record. It is anomalies like this that leads to fans and critics object to the NFL’s current play-off system as it means that some of the better teams with a superior record can miss out.

The simple fact is that some divisions are just stronger than others. The NFC East is historically the toughest and the best division in the league as it has produced the most Super Bowl wins of x11 since 1966. This season the NFC South is probably the next toughest division. The New Orleans Saints ended the season with an 8-8 record, but last in their division. This NFC South is very topsy-turvy, I guess these teams in this division make full use of the draft and free agents. This division had a strange record for the last 5 years where the team that finished last, the next year would win the division. I have to say, knowing this in September I came awfully close to putting a bet on Atlanta winning the division. Rookie QB Matt Ryan has impressed me and everybody from week 1, looking very poised in the pocket, accurate with his passing and unflappable, all to rare for a rookie QB. He was so impressive that this week he won the award for Rookie MVP. Sadly Atlanta, no fault of Ryan ended up 1x game shy of winning the division with an 11-5 record. Division champs the Carolina Panthers looked impressive, even if they did wobble mid season. The trick was they played badly but won the games and finished with a 12-4 record. They ended up sharing the best record with The NY Giants and joining them as the No.1 and 2 seed for the NFC and earned themselves a week off.

The Cowboys started the season as everyone favourites to win the Super Bowl. They won their opening 3x games however they began to splutter, Romo injured his pinky finger and missed 4x games. They almost bounced back however the teams December blues returned they began losing, arguing and never recovered. The Eagles were looking out of the picture, they even tied a game, the first time in the NFL since 2002. McNabb was playing so badly head coach Andy Reid benched him. It had the desired effect as he came back swinging and hitting his receivers between the numbers. Finishing the season with a 4-1 streak that saw them thump The Cowboys 6-44 in the last game of the season. It turn out the tied game came in handy as it gave The Eagles 2nd place and helped knock The Cowboys out of the race for the play-offs.

The St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders and the San Fransisco 49ers made mid-season coaching changes. The end of the season brought the sacking of a couple of head coaches. The NY Jets fired Eric Mangini for not getting his team to the play-offs from an 8-4 start, winning only 1 game from the last 5. I hate to say it but, it sounds like the fans and pundits are laying some, if not most of the blame on QB Brett Fave. Mike Shannerhan, the 2nd longest tenured coach who won back-to-back Super Bowls in the 90’s for the Denver Broncos was fired for losing a 3x game lead to The Chargers resulting in no play-off birth. The Seahawks Mike Holmgren is taking a year out, the Indianpolalis Colts Tony Dunghi is retiring. Along the sidelines, the NFL will look significantly different next year with the lack of big names that have the big game experience of winning Super Bowls.

January games take on a new intensity, you lose, and you go home. The hitting gets harder, there is more on the line, every play becomes critical. Normally you get some snow or icebowl games, sadly Green Bay and New England did not make it. Aaron Rogers came in a looked good for Green Bay, sadly the defence and running back Grant did not stand up. Last years Green Bay Ice bowel game against The Giants was one of the best games of the season. The Colts and Peyton Manning are on a roll with a nine game win streak. This is very impressive considering Peyton Manning came off knee surgery last summer. He took a while to get going but has got his team in a position similar to 2006 when they won the Super Bowl. Manning’s skill and leadership has led to him been named the leagues MVP. Manning has received this award 3x time now, equaling Brett Favres run in the late 90’s.


Wild Card Weekend Schedule

Saturday Jan 3:
9pm Atlanta at Arizona,
1.30am Indianapolis at San Diego.

Sunday Jan 4:
6pm Baltimore at Miami

9pm Philadelphia at Minnesota.

There is talk of all the road teams winning this weekend, which would be quite something.

The Colts and Manning maybe the in form team, however they have a lousy record of 1-3 against The Chargers. The Chargers just know how to line up against The Colts and how to fluster Manning as he averages 3 interceptions per game. He has had some his worst games in San Diego. Both QBs will come out slinging, as ever it will be a close game with no more than 4 points in it.

Arizona have not made the play-offs since 1947, so they maybe pretty nervous. Thankfully they have home field advantage and they are always strong at home. Even though Atlanta have the rookie MVP at QB, he may have hit the rookie wall. Arizona have the rejuvenated QB Kurt Warner who has had his best year since his Super Bowl winning days in St.Louis. Combine that with the tall, physical and reliable wide receivers Boldin and Fitzgerald, the Atlanta defence may have a long day, especially if Arizona mix it up with a run game. If Arizona want to progress the defense will need to step up to stop Michal Tuner.

The Ravens and rookie QB Joe Flacco travel to Miami for a tough game. This will be a defensive game, as The Ravens can shut down any team. It will be interesting to see how Miami and QB Chad Pennington and their wildcat offence do against Ray Lewis’s Raven defence. I can see the Ravens winning this by 10-6

Philadelphia Eagles v Minnesota Vikings will be another defensive chess match, with two of the leagues best running backs in Brian Westbrook and Adrian Peterson. If Donovan McNabb can have a good game he may be the difference maker.

The Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson will need to have a good game throeing he ball, to allow Peterson to find the holes. Jackson will be tested more than his 17 previous games as Philly's defensive wizard Jim Johnson, will blitz Jackson more than any other team he has seen all year. Because of that I can see Philly winning the game.